Well I am in Pune and guess what there is seems to be a mass hysteria(though it has died down of late) around here as till today there have been 34 deaths in Pune with overall India deaths being 125 .
All around in the TV there are doctors ,ministers , officials and everybody and even reporters telling us not to panic. They are telling us that TB , Diarrohea , Cancer , AIDS , etc kill far more people per day in India than swine flu. Some one put the numbers at around 500 deaths per day due to some of these diseases.
"Intelligent " People are telling us giving the death statistics of other diseases or the mortality rate statistics of even normal flu and telling that more people per 1000 of population die every year than Swine flu . The people dying due to swine flu is not even comparable with people dying with TB or road accidents even .
To all those people who want to tell the "panic stricken people" not to panic by giving these "facts , statistics, truths" I have some basic questions for them . Most probably the people who are almost mocking the panic stricken puneites and laughing at them are those people who have their own personal cars and they can live their without going into really dangerous(view point of public places for a long period of time --basically they are safe by a long margin from coming into close contact with any infected person .
Forget about swine flu for the moment. Let us try and understand first why people panic . Why is it that general public might panic in a given situation ? And what can be done to reduce the panic situation .
For answering this question we have to go to economics theory first - law of demand and supply . The universal law which is applicable in almost all commodities or service (exceptions are always there to the laws of economics but lets ignore those for the moment to keep analysis simple) .
In simple terms if there is a huge mismatch in demand and supply for a product or a service (where demand is huge and supply is limited) the price of the product or service keeps on going up and up . Now if price goes up the rich people can get the scarce resource more easily than poor people by paying more money and hence the capitalist society remains in BALANCE .
Take any field of life where money can directly make a difference (I know someone amongst you are squirming saying money cant get you everything --- I know I know but hey I can not think of any situation in life where having more money with you was a problem or you were better of without having money …. If you can think of that kind of situation to tell me) .
In fact given any situation in life all else remaining equal the person having more money is better off than the person having less of it.
Take any small city like say Indore or Ranchi or Bhopal or Raipur and try to see its public transport system . Only buses and autos will be there for public transport and if look carefully people are not rushing , jostling or killing each other to try and catch the bus . Basically people are NOT PANICKING when the bus comes or the auto comes . All because the there is NOT MUCH demand - Supply gap between the people wanting to travel and the buses .(Ok I know public transport is not enough but read my example below to try and compare the situation of the small cities with Mumbai)
Lets take a most common example -- I have lived in Mumbai for 2 years as a student and used the local train services there as I could not afford a car . Here is a service which almost everybody needs ie - going from point A to point B . You have basically two extremes by which you can go. Try and catch a Virar To CST 8:10 AM fast local at andheri (I lost a bet against with my friend that I would get in)or get a taxi/buy your own car to travel . Here capitalism comes in . You can get a ticket for Rs.8 and catch the train or pay around 300 rupees for a taxi or spend at least 2 lakh on a car (courtesy Nano) initially and then keep paying petrol/diesel cost of around 12 km/l .
Govt in above situation provides train services else you can pay huge amount of money and get a private service (taxi or car) .And if you have money then You DON’T PANIC .
So what you see here is a balancing act of demand and supply . Everybody would love to travel in a car -comfort ,convenience , safety ,etc. Unfortunately not everyone can afford it .So some people pay and use a car others are forced to travel in inhuman conditions in local train. So hopefully things should have balanced out .
Even then if you see the rush hour traffic at Mumbai local train stations you can see what is meant by PANIC . The moment the train comes people scramble and jostle and may be are even ready to kill each other to catch the train . I can easily describe the situation of getting into a local train as panic . In fact just tell the ministers to board the rush local train from a midway station and then he will realise what mumbai people have to go through each day in local trains .
The PANIC at local stations is there all because the Demand far outstrips the supply . People in Mumbai are panicking and jumping just to get into a train so that they can go home so if people are panicking in Pune to save their life is it really too bad what they are doing ??
Unfortunately all intelligent people seem to be missing this crucial point that people in Pune are panicking not because of some irrational fear but because people feel helpless in trying to get the treatment of Swine flu all because of the DEMAND-SUPPLY MISMATCH.
I'll come to this point again later on but let me just lambast those people who are giving statistics of deaths from other diseases like diarrhea , TB , cancer or malaria etc.
Its far easier I feel to misguide people by giving them statistics and facts than by giving them some philosophical or debatable logic. Comparing deaths and the panic of Swine flu with those of deaths by cancer ,TB , malaria , diarrohea , AIDS ,etc is like comparing Apples with Bananas or peanuts (not even oranges) . Please note that some of the diseases will have some characteristics mentioned below but NONE will have all characteristics as Swine Flu has.
Please tell me one disease amongst all the listed diseases where the medical supply for treatment is NOT available in private hospitals or Medical shops ???
I am not a medical expert but I don’t know about any disease(except AIDS) where I cannot get treatment for that disease from a private hospital and get the medicines for it from Medical shop. I mean how can a normal person with an iota of BRAIN can even think of comparing the Death Statistics of Swine flu with those diseases for which the treatment is available in probably more than 95% of private hospitals and in almost all medical shops at my own convenience . How can you just give me some ratio of people dead to people infected/population and tell me that Swine flu is much safer and less dangerous than XYZ disease ??????
Please tell me one disease amongst all the listed diseases where I just CANNOT get that diseases tested for without going through a stupidest procedure ever designed-- counselling ,waiting in line for 3 hours for pre-screening, screening and being kicked away, refused screening ,waiting in line for at least 4-5 hours and then being kicked away , begging the screening people to refer to Naidu hospital , waiting in line for 4-5 hours at Naidu and then fighting the Naidu hospital staff to finally get tested and then waiting 2 days to get a result (I might be dead by the time ) ??????????????
Please all the intelligent people tell me one disease which you know where I have to go through this kind of testing procedure for just knowing whether I have the disease or not ???
The most frustrating part of the whole Swine Flu saga is the classic case of Bottleneck as described in The Goal . The govt knew about the swine flu outbreak at least 2-3 months earlier . It also knew that NIV Pune cannot test more than around 300 samples per day and it did nothing and till today (12th august) it has done absolutely nothing to change this testing situation at all.
Govt says it has enough Tamiflu tablets but its making a big fool of us . The testing centres and capability is fixed and limited and that is the 1st step for disease treatment. So it makes absolutely no difference to anybody if the govt happily trumpets saying hey we have 10 million tamiflu tablets . Goldratt would have laughed aloud on this kind of statement by the government . It does not matter whether govt has 1 million tablets or 1 billion tablets if the total number of testing which can be done is just 300 per day because if you don’t get tested you don’t get the medicine.
I mean if I keep on coughing for say 1-2 weeks any roadside doctor (who may not even have MBBS degree) will probably tell me hey go and test for TB . So what will I do if I have to test for TB ?? Do I have to go and Beg in front of some Sarkari people that please I feel bad and sick please please test me for TB …… DO I remain on the mercy of some crap Sarkari person to get myself tested for something I feel I have for any disease on this planet earth?? If the answer is NO then Plzzzzzzzz do NOT compare swine flu deaths or panic with some other disease give sermons not to panic . Why wont a person panic ?he knows he cant do anything . The feeling of helplessness when oneself or ones love one is sick and you just cannot do anything is one of the worst feelings on this earth . I hope nobody gets into that situation . But this is exactly what is happening in Swine Flu case . One of the close friends of a Swine flu infected girl(who later died) was being refused testing by Naidu Hospital . Her parents begged and told hey my kid used to play with the infected girl please test her . And the intelligent people of Naidu hospital said NO because their "intelligent screening symptoms" said she is not infected. But thank god her Parents fought them ,there was altercation and finally the hospital relented and tested and she was indeed infected .
She could have easily died and infected 10 other people of her family had her parents not fought (read PANICKED) and forced the Naidu hospital to test her . Tell me you intelligent people if her parents would have just sat in their home because according to you people you should NOT PANIC what would have happened ?? Even if I feel really sick and really bad I might be point blank refused testing and I might just go and die some day later . If this is the situation for just getting the testing why shouldn’t people panic ??? I mean give me a situation when people should panic ??
Do you intelligent people think that since TB kills around 500 people per day I should instead panic for TB or may be for cancer and NOT for swine flu ?
Do you want me to panic for a disease which can be tested any working day at any of the hundreds of govt hospital and any of the thousands of private hospitals and clinics as and when I want ??? Compare this to 2 places in Pune which has population of close to 50 lakhs where I can get myself tested .
Don’t you empathize with people who are literally on the mercy of the few doctors at Naidu hospitals to get their fears allayed??
I just cant believe that hospitals like Apollo , Fortis , Leelavati , etc don’t have expertise or money to do this test . I just don’t accept this argument at all that NIV is some sort of God given lab to India and the facility which it has just cannot be replicated anywhere in India .
It’s the classic case of demand supply mismatch causing PANIC. If 100 people have cough and cold and they want to get tested for swine flu and the testing can be done for only 10 people then why shouldn't the other 90 PANIC ??
Please tell me one disease whose statistics they are giving where a person dies within 4-5 days of getting it ??
Do you want me to panic for a disease in which the person dies after a minimum of at least 6 months (TB) ?
Do you want me to panic for cancer where even the deadliest ones even after being detected give at least 3-4 months of life ??
Please tell me one disease amongst all the listed diseases where I can get the disease and die while I am doing the most normal routine of my life i.e. going to shops , malls , school , buses, or just while walking on the road ????
Also some intelligent person in Times of India says some 100 ppl or so die each day in India out of road accidents so we should be more afraid of road accidents rather than Swine flu. Again amazing comparison where you just take something and compare with something by using some statistics . Lets think for a moment about road accidents and why people are not that afraid of road accidents than swine flu .
How and why will road accident occur ?? Rash driving , Drunken driving , Bus full of people going down a valley , blah blah . I can avoid all these situations quite easily . And my god if someone does have an accident every single hospital or dispensary in India will be happily ready to treat you . There wont be any screening centre to tell -- -Hey is your hand broken or not that will NOT be tested …. Or if you take two parts of your hand to doctor doctor will say hey let me send your hand to NIV(testing centre) and its result will come after 3-4 days……….but in the meantime we will NOT put the PLASTER on your Hand because your hand might develop IMMUNITY against plaster . So plz go home and come to take PLASTER only when you become serious .
Why cant people see that accidents are easily treatable and at every place . Hence they will never ever be panic because there has been some 445 deaths on Mumbai pune expressway or something like that . There is no reason to panic because after accident if you are not dead they you can be easily treated in 1-2 lakh hospitals in India at your convenient time and boy you can get your whole 204 bones tested as many times as you want ;-)
But of late even though there has been more deaths still panic has reduced because the media is not taking up the issue now with as much vigor as it was doing it earlier . But anyway I really believe that people panicking in Swine Flu case was NOT abnormal by any means .
